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Numberology

Numberology #5

10/20/09

 1.  Hollidaysburg, 4-3, 480 points
The Golden Tigers beat Cardozo out of Washington, D.C. last week and picked up ten more points than originally thought because the team actually had two wins previously, not one as was reported.  So they got 100 from the head-to-head win and another 10 from the guaranteed game of Central Mountain and Bellefonte as those were two teams they already beat.

This week:  Hollidaysburg is at Cedar Cliff, a 3-AAAA team out of the Mid Penn Conference.  A win would net the Golden Tigers a whooping 160 points, 120 for beating a Quad-A team and another 40 bonus points for CC's previous 4 wins.  In games involving prior wins, they have another ten points guaranteed as Indian Valley and Central Mountain play one another.  Bellefonte is at Penns Valley and Cardozo plays fellow DC school Roosevelt.

MAX POINTS for Hollidaysburg to pick up this week would be 190, 160 for beating Cedar Cliff, 10 guaranteed from the CM/Indian Valley game, 10 if Bellefonte beats Penns Valley and 10 if Cardozo beats Roosevelt.


2. Johnstown, 4-3, 340 points
The Trojans only picked up ten points last week as they got the guaranteed 10 points in the Somerset/Bishop Carroll contest.

This week:  Johnstown plays 3-4 Bishop Guilfoyle, a Class A team.  They would pick up 90 points should they beat the Marauders.  60 for the win and 30 bonus points for the prior three BG wins.  In games involving teams that the Trojans have beaten, there are ten guaranteed points on the table as Cambria Heights and Bishop Carroll play one another.  Westmont is at Bedford and Somerset is at Penn Cambria. 

MAX POINTS for Johnstown to pick up this week would be 120.  90 for beating BG, 10 guaranteed no matter who wins between BC and Cambria Heights, 10 if Westmont beats Bedford and 10 if Somerset beats Penn Cambria .


3.  Bellefonte, 1-6, 110 points
The Red Raiders lost their head-to-head contest and picked up no bonus points. 

This week:  Bellefonte takes on Penns Valley this week.  PV is a AA team with a 1-6 record so this is a game they actually could win.  They would pick up 90 points, 80 for the head-to-head win and 10 for PV's previous one victory.  In bonus points, Brookville will take on Keystone (5-2).

MAX POINTS for Bellefonte to pick up this week would be 100, 90 if they beat Penns Valley and 10 if Brookville beat Keystone.


4.  Indian Valley, 1-6, 110 points
The Warriors lost their head-to-head contest and picked up no bonus points. 

This week:  IV takes on Central Mountain, a 6-AAAA team with a 4-3 record.  A win here would net the Warriors 160 points, 120 for beating a Quad-A team and 40 bonus points for CM's previous four victories.  In bonus points, West Perry takes on East Pennsboro (2-5). 


MAX POINTS
for IV to pick up this week would be 170, 160 if they win head-to-head with Central Mountain and another 10 if West Perry should take on East Pennsboro.
 

ANALYSIS: With the bottom two teams both 1-6 and essentially out of the running, it really continues to be a two-horse race between the Golden Tigers and the Trojans.  Bellefonte is actually eliminated because they have a school policy that they have to finish above .500 in order to participate in the playoffs.  It is unknown at this time whether Indian Valley has a similar policy.

 
PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 8:  We'll see how right/wrong I was next week at this time, but here is what I predict the 6-AAA standings will look like next week:

1.  Hollidaysburg, 4-4, 500 points:  I think Cedar Cliff is a team that could cause Hollidaysburg problems, look for the Golden Tigers to only get the bonus points from Cardozo, Bellefonte and the Indian Valley/Central Mountain game.

2.  Johnstown, 5-3, 440 points:  the Trojans will win against Bishop Guilfoyle and pick up the guaranteed points from the Cambria Heights/Bishop Carroll game. 

3.  Bellefonte, 2-6, 210 points:  although the Red Raiders are eliminated from postseason play, pride is on the line and I see them beating Penns Valley. 

4.  Indian Valley, 1-7, 110 points:  IV will pick up nothing this week.

Doug Keklak can be reached at doug.keklak@trojannation.net

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